HAV Trading Review – Val Harrison

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  • #2119
    ReviewTeam
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    HAV Trading Review – Val Harrison

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    Key Info

    Publisher:  Thames Publishing
    Cost:  £395 (payable over 3 instalments) with a 60 Day Money Back Guarantee
    Review Date:  June 2013

    What It Says On The Website

    Val Harrison it seems has been around a while (well, he is 85 years old!). Trading the markets since the 70s he appeared in the Investors Chronicle in 1978 and also had a book, Speculate, Accumulate, Increase Your Income, published in the early 2000’s.

    HAV Trading is his brainchild and he labels it “the 3 simple secrets of his success”. It is not about scalping or day trading, “HAV Trading is about serious investing – Following the big market moves of hundreds of points” – Across 9 major indices and 10 popular Currency pairs.

    Val’s aim is to make a return of 50% a year by checking price against two simple indicators and then placing the appropriate trades once a week, on a Monday morning. Alternatively one can follow his weekly email which contains updates on all trades he has open (this means there is no need to even look at a price chart).

    He recommends a starting account of at least £2,500 which would mean a return of £1,250 in the first year if the return objective is hit, minus of course, the cost of the system.

    This product comes with a 60 Day Money Back Guarantee backed by Thames Publishing.

    The Material

    A manual and a years worth of email updates.

    The 55 page manual is very well written, obviously by someone who knows what they are talking about. It opens with Val giving a little more background on himself. An ex-veterinary surgeon based in Birmingham who made enough money from commodity trading to eventually retire. Since the 70’s he has made many media appearances including the Financial Times, Sunday Telegraph, Investors Chronicle and even the BBC Money Programme. Retired at the age of 50 and bored he became a Financial consultant and ran a small commodity syndicate which he then passed onto his son.

    Bored again after giving up the business to his son he came up with the HAV Trading system. Back-tested over 10 years across 5 indices it made an average 60% a year and since live running, 3 years ago, has produced a total return of 90%.

    The manual lists the instruments Val trades; 19 in total including, as mentioned above, 9 major indices and 10 popular Currency pairs, split into categories:

    – European indices (3)
    – American indices (3)
    – Pacific indices (3)
    – Currency pairs (10)

    He never opens more than 2 positions in any one category so he has a maximum of 8 open positions at any one time. Val mentions that this may again be limited by Risk management but it is an unlikely event – We agree.

    Chart set up is well explained and is easy. Two industry standard indicators are used on a Weekly chart.

    Entry, Stop, Exit and Risk management are then also well explained although it did take us a couple of reads just to clarify. All in all this is pretty much a 100% mechanical system although Val does advise some discretion on the exit strategy based on Support and Resistance and Fundamentals which he provides advice on in his weekly email. If one ignores this aspect (which we did for testing purposes) it can be said this is 100% mechanical.

    Note: Val’s weekly emails are free for the 1st year and then cost £150 a year thereafter – We did not refer to them or see the need to on the basis it was not really feasible for us and that if one is to use this system long term they should learn to do so without needing outside assistance.

    The System

    Chart set up, as mentioned, is well explained and is easy, even a complete novice will have no problem. It is also pretty much mechanical, check the charts on a Monday, place orders and adjust open trades based on the rule base (price action and two industry standard indicators). Even 15 minutes trading all instruments should be sufficient for those new to trading, certainly after a few weeks.

    Risk is defined as 10% of the instrument value and then 14% of the account balance based on this – This risk is then adjusted (tightened) to a level based on the indicator values so it is usually much less than 14% of account balance risk per trade – Target is a flat 5% of the instrument value which means the aim, on each trade, is to make a return of 7% of account balance – Seems reasonably logical to us!

    Can It Work

    Long term – Probably yes, as long as one diversifies as recommended in the manual, perhaps even more so if one follows the email commentary (which we did not).

    On to our results, which due to the nature of this system, are based on us back-testing 5 of the instruments Val follows; EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, FTSE, DOW (from the beginning of 2010). They are based on us observing the rolling daily contract charts – Val trades the “Near quarter” contracts to avoid rollover costs (and rightly so).

    Note: This means our results do not reflect rollover costs which to be fair should be relatively insignificant considering the long term nature of this approach.

    EURUSD (2010 – Jul-2013)

    • Number Of Trades / Winners / Losers = 13 / +4 / -9
    • Percentage Of Profitable Trades = 30.77%
    • Average Winning / Losing Trade = +7.00% / -4.81%
    • Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss) = 0.65
    • Largest Drawdown = -22.28%
    • Total Return = -15.28%

    EURJPY (2010 – Jul-2013)

    • Number Of Trades / Winners / Losers = 8 / +6 / -2
    • Percentage Of Profitable Trades = 75.00%
    • Average Winning / Losing Trade = +7.00% / -5.40%
    • Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss) = 3.89
    • Largest Drawdown = -8.18%
    • Total Return = +31.19%
    GBPUSD (2010 – Jul-2013)

    • Number Of Trades / Winners / Losers = 12 / +3 / -9
    • Percentage Of Profitable Trades = 25.00%
    • Average Winning / Losing Trade = +4.81% / -3.56%
    • Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss) = 0.45
    • Largest Drawdown = -26.79%
    • Total Return = -17.61%

    FTSE (2010 – Jul-2013)

    • Number Of Trades / Winners / Losers = 11 / +7 / -4
    • Percentage Of Profitable Trades = 63.64%
    • Average Winning / Losing Trade = +7.00% / -7.36%
    • Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss) = 1.66
    • Largest Drawdown = -9.56%
    • Total Return = +19.54%

    DOW (2010 – Jul-2013)

    • Number Of Trades / Winners / Losers = 14 / +8 / -6
    • Percentage Of Profitable Trades = 57.14%
    • Average Winning / Losing Trade = +6.24% / -6.76%
    • Profit Factor (Gross Profit / Gross Loss) = 1.23
    • Largest Drawdown = -30.89%
    • Total Return = +9.39%

    Two main observations here for us. On the plus side, across the 5 popular instruments we chose to test, the system is profitable. On the negative side those draw-downs are worth mentioning, between -8% and -31% across the different instruments.

    Our testing – We would have taken just over a trade a month during the 3 and a half year back-test and achieved a total return of 27.23% based on a maximum risk of 14% of account balance (often less) per trade. Our total return is obviously short of the 50% annual return target. To be fair here though our return is based on a quarter of the instrument list – Suppose we multiply our return by four (and our return (27.23% * 4) = 100% (give or take)) then it may be fair to say that an average annual return of 30%+ is perhaps achievable (if trading all instruments). Observers, particularly those who are more optimistic, may also add into the mix that by observing Val’s weekly email updates (and including some discretion on the exit strategy) performance may be improved further.

    In summary – A positive long term return, for what would have been little effort, that could probably be improved upon by trading more instruments (and hence, diversification) and observing the weekly email updates, as advised. Respect to an author who clearly knows his stuff and has done, at least, some homework on his strategy. Additional comfort comes from the fact that he actually seems to trade it himself and care about what he is offering by virtue of his weekly emails – Just a pity here that there is a cheeky ongoing charge after the first 12 months.

    As the author states, this is more a long term investment strategy (about building profits over time) – Not a “trading” system.

    Support

    We never contacted support so cannot comment.

    Summary

    PRO’s
    • A known and respected author who obviously knows his stuff.
    • Easy to set up, 100% mechanical and long term profitable (on a back-test).
    • Relaxed easy approach (15 minutes a week maximum) with a more realistic objective of 50% a year although we figure 30% may be more accurate.

    CON’s
    • £2,500 may seem like a high starting account balance and 50% a year may seem low for some but, in our opinion, this is only because most have been mislead by other system sellers selling dreams – Realism required (read this infographic).
    • For some, maybe not enough action, for others, the draw-downs may not be so easy to stomach – Patience and a Long term view required.
    • Some may feel the need to follow the weekly update which comes at a cost – A bit cheeky at £150 a year after the first 12 months.

    Do remember, your comments are important – If you have used or decide to use this system, please contribute to the community by reporting back your findings.

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    #2125
    orange
    orange
    Participant

    Thanks for the review I was looking at this a while back but couldn’t find a decent review anywhere, do you know when it will be available again?

    #2126
    ReviewTeam
    ReviewTeam
    Keymaster

    You are welcome.

    At present no we do not but the publisher has told us that as and when they start promoting it again we will be one of the first to know. As a member, as soon as we know, you will know…


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    And also receive an email every time we post a new review

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    #2605

    nke
    Participant

    Seems like it is available again, here is the link

    #2610
    ReviewTeam
    ReviewTeam
    Keymaster

    Seems like it is available again, here is the link

    Yes it is and thanks for letting us know.


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